CAY - mining fleet arrives to bauxite project in Cameroon

Our bauxite Investment Canyon Resources (ASX: CAY) just mobilised a surface miner to site at its Project in Cameroon.

CAY’s project has a resource of 1.102BN tonnes of Bauxite.

It's one of the biggest undeveloped bauxite projects in the world and CAY expects to be mining on the project THIS quarter.

(the surface miner is there, so we are close…)

(source)

Today’s development update also confirmed:

• First locomotives delivery remain on track from the recent update with first arrival mid-late Q2, with shipments to commence in Q3
• Discussions with Camrail continue looking to increase Cay’s ownership above the current 9.1%
• Offtake discussions with potential partners ongoing with the goal to secure agreements following the initial shipment of bauxite

CAY’s formal guidance today is for mining to “commence before the end of March”, with first bauxite production targeted for early Q2 2026.

Recently CAY updated that Full-scale bauxite shipments are scheduled to commence in Q4, 2026. (source)

CAY also has a feasibility study incoming for an aluminium refinery

One of the big things CAY has been working on in the background for a while now, is the potential to go downstream for its bauxite project.

CAY has a feasibility study incoming for a value-add alumina refinery in country - with the study scheduled for Q3-2026. (source)

We think that study just got a lot more interesting inside the last ~12 days with the macro environment completely changing for a downstream alumina refinery, particularly the energy requirements.

The bauxite smelting required to create aluminium is an incredibly energy intensive process (temperature up to 1,100deg celsius, source), which has become a concern during the Iran conflict.

The price of energy has gone up significantly for oil and gas, so If this conflict and supply issues were to drag on for months, this may be positive for CAY as some refineries use coal and gas for heat.

Cay is looking into building a downstream business to process its bauxite in Cameroon which has vast quantities of hydroelectric power.

Hydroelectric power is becoming a common energy source for aluminium production, so this isn’t anything new. (source)

So the results of the study CAY is doing could come back positive in a world with high energy costs.

Which could result in CAY getting the study out, just as the market is starting to show a heightened interest in something like this, aluminium refining with energy coming from stable sources.

(source)

We listened to the most recent Money of Mine podcast which was with Alan Clark from CM Group, who is dubbed “Aluminium Alan”.

Here were some of our key takeaways from the following interview with a bauxite/aluminium expert and how we think it relates to CAY:

1. Guinea concentration risk is THE structural story in bauxite - Guinea supplies 70-75% of China's bauxite imports. The 2024 disruption at GAC sent alumina and bauxite prices to all-time records. Alan called it the industry's "no shit moment." (basically confirmation that the industry is now very aware of a requirement to bring new supply online)
2. Downstream refining is credible at CAY's scale - Guinea miners are being forced by government to build refineries - Cameroon could lead by choice. Energy is the key question (Alan flagged this for Guinea too) - Cameroon's hydro capacity could be an advantage.
3. The market is temporarily weak but structurally solid - Alan talked about how ~40% of global alumina refining capacity is currently operating at a loss. Bauxite prices are at or near the cost curve. It's a buyer's market right now - but the Guinea supply risk hasn't gone away, it's just been underpriced again.

A key quote during the podcast for us was this:

"The demand for aluminium… It's just always going up and you know the world needs… at least one new smelter prime aluminium every year..." (09:45)

So there appears to be a long term market that CAY could become a part of in both the bauxite supply and refining/smelting in the not so distant future if the economics from this study stack up.

It's a great watch for anyone who wants a deep dive into the bauxite markets:

Why Aluminium Just Went Vertical - Money of Mine

CAY also put out a funding update today

The big news in today's update was around funding.

At CAY's EGM held on 9 March, shareholders voted against Tranche 2 of the placement - that was the ~A$70M from Afriland and A$100M from Eagle Eye.

But CAY confirmed that Stage 1 development remains fully funded without that money.

The company has ~US$43M cash on hand plus ~US$95M undrawn from its US$140M credit facility with AFG Bank Cameroon - enough to cover CAPEX through to first shipment as outlined in the DFS.

So while the EGM result wasn't ideal, it doesn't change the near-term development timeline.

(which is exactly what we were looking out for clarification on)

(source)

On the logistics side, CRRC locomotives are expected to arrive at the Port of Douala by mid to late Q2 2026, which lines up with ore transport starting from the Inland Rail Facility ahead of first shipment in Q3.

CAY is also still in discussions with Camrail about increasing its equity stake above the current 9.1% - that would give CAY more control over the mine-to-port logistics chain, which we've always thought was important for de-risking the project.

And off-take discussions are progressing - CAY plans to finalise agreements after initial bauxite shipments, which makes sense because buyers will want to test the ore quality first.

What’s next for CAY?

The key catalysts we will be looking out for over the coming months are:

1. 🔲 An offtake deal that locks in a sale price for CAY’s product (keeping in mind that CAY’s bauxite is a premium product and could fetch US$11 higher than market bauxite prices)
   
   
2. ✅ Mining fleet mobilising to site - Today - surface miner commissioning expected this Month.
   
   
3. 🔲 Locomotives arriving in country (expected to arrive from mid-late Q2 and into Q3), with first shipment expected in Q3
   
   
4. 🔄 Road/rail infrastructure completion (expected to be ready during Q2 for ore haulage to the rail facility).

We want to see CAY execute its development plan as they have outlined below, noting that today’s update has some of these timelines sliding relating to train commissioning and first shipment:

(source)